1.16 Recap

The futures markets today seemed like they wanted to trade lower but keep getting bid on new lows.

I have a few thoughts on that for this week and where they should head in the premium video.

SAVE 0.00%↑ merger was shot down. I got long this a while ago sub $10 with long equity and long calls before the IV spiked on it. Trading mergers is hard and this reminded me why I never really do it.

The only reason I did was because the entry price was so close to book value ($6-$8) that it made the margin of safety ideal and the upside pretty asymmetric.

One of the things I like is asymmetry in my investments and even though I was up quite a bit on this I didn’t sell until today near cost basis.

There’s not really a case to mess with it here: the IV on the options is (and has been too high) to matter and too many eyes are on it now - the fact is the upside is done so we move on.

I shared my full analysis on all of it here if you care to read.

Moving on.

Crude oil is still bearish and I expect a 6 handle - the EIA report is Thursday given the shortened trading week.

I’m long WTI Crude puts looking for that drive into $66-$68.

The full recap and trade plan for tomorrow 1.17 is inside for members.