2.2 Market Plan
$4870 - the number I posted on the Sunday LongVol Report outlook stuck yesterday and tested nearly again this am to see us have an inside and up trend day. I would have liked to see a continuation of sellers today but given NFP is tomorrow and a new monthly candle it looks like it’s delayed.
+$4930 has to clear for this to press and if we do it’s $5,000 on deck.
If you’re new to the blog I don’t really care about the $SPX too much other than to get market sentiment for day trading high beta names. I don’t swing it, I don’t actively trade futures on it and I don’t index myself to it as a benchmark. But, I know Retail Traders are obsessed with it so that’s why it makes it into these recaps.
What I do care about is Crude oil and energy longs which were absolutely thumped today. I’d love to sit here and tell you that winning daily is a reality - and maybe it is for the day trading community or those in prop-trading after the $250 daily goal TJ and the Landshark Prop group is after - but it’s different for those pressing it.
Crude dropped pretty hard today on some Al Jazeera (now deleted) about short-term peace between the fighting in the Middle-East which, probably doesn’t happen and just restarts again soon.
For most, I would never suggest to try to trade bigger swings unless you can stomach days like this and for most Retail Traders just making cash consistently is the better move but I can’t write on this blog as if that’s what I do because it’s not: so I share insights into both to give you perspective.
The oil thesis doesn’t change after one tweet or a cease-fire, the fundamentals just don’t switch off like that. But, it does cause shakeouts and that’s what most traders who day trade the markets experience on a daily basis which is why I’ve never been much of a day trader - the pressure to be so precise with the amount of size you (really me) need to make it worth it just doesn’t add up to the stress - hence position and swing trading.
Not sure if that makes sense to most reading this or if that line of thinking has crossed your desk yet as investors but doing this for a long time it’s just always been easier to trade heavier and hold v. the short-time frame trade (which I do still just in reason).
The NFP number tomorrow is not something I have an opinion on and it would not shock me to see this ramp but again, it just doesn’t matter to me.
I started housing shorts yesterday on XHB 0.00%↑ and RKT 0.00%↑ but had to cover up RKT 0.00%↑ today given this move.
In The Premium Video Tonight:
S&P/Nasdaq/Crude Plan
Potential setups based on NFP data tomorrow