Daily Market Brief

Metals & Housing Rip

Links Worth Reading

• Schwab earnings slide, here’s why (Barrons)

• Another win closed in the AST Alert Portfolio

Reminder, you can listen to the weekly show and article of the week here.

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There’s so much to get into but I just don’t have the time given travels this week but there are a few notes and I’ll cover a lot in this week’s show (hoping to film it Thursday in in NYC before out for a meeting with a friend).

Let’s start with metals/miners. Last week in TLV Issue 28 I added new metals/miners and made some notes about Mag 7 names. One of those names, WPM 0.00%↑ is up nearly +10% since and I laid out the case in the report and on X/Twitter basically free which is good for those of you with alligator arms. As I see it, this is the inflection point in markets ahead of the Fed cut in September and it’s the time to make moves for the back half of the year. I don’t like miners/metals too much so I spent a lot of time a month ago sorting through potential names to add to the portfolios and WPM 0.00%↑ NEM 0.00%↑ and GOLD 0.00%↑ were the winners. The order flow there is non-stop but I do think we pause a bit here into end of month; this is just initial positioning.

Home Builders - Last August I had a large, short on home builder stocks. Business Insider covered it a bit. My view changed a bit on the homebuilders and I got long a few names last week ( XHB 0.00%↑ KBH 0.00%↑ and long Jan calls).

I closed out the rest of the shares positions today for +14% on the shares and about +250% on January calls.

I’m a little annoyed because I wanted to size larger on it on a pause, but they all just became bid and ran - what can you do? You have housing starts tomorrow and given this was more of an event-driven trade I had to book the rest. But, that data matters so I’ll be tracking it.

This has been a great start to Q3 and needed because Q2 was good but slower with Swing/Core positions. In Q1 it was on fire, and this is reminiscent of that again given the sea-change. The one thing I’ll say is for those who have been readers here the past 3 years that this year has been one of the better ones and when flows are there you really have to maximize because the rest of the time it’s just waiting around on data and money flows to shift.

I am going to talk about SCHW 0.00%↑ a bit inside the members area and do a brief recap since I am still technically away for the week but I wanted to highlight some of those items above….