Daily Market Brief

April 4, 2004

Nasty risk-off situation today in the markets ahead of NFP this was posted in the members area last night.

S&P500: $5250 is key that close was bullish so I expect $5290-$5300s to print and don’t see the downside risk unless that $5250s area break. The flow tomorrow might be better but NFP Friday is really likely where it’s at. For those who are trained on this I would expect OPEX Playbook strategies to be in play so look for ideas into Friday based around the potential SPX move.

If we get to that $5300 and do not see sellers I assume a big push is coming but have to taper that with NFP Friday.

I think after today the consensus, finally, is that it’s time to be risk-off. Do I personally care? No, not really because it’s just pointless conversation and I trade long/short across asset classes regardless of the market at large.

What I do care about is shorts on the Mag 7 names/semis which I talked about Sunday in the report and some of those are paying off fat so far.

That was issue 14 from Sunday and part of this weeks outlook. The rotation out of mega-caps started a few weeks ago and you saw it all day in $NVDA and $SMCI which were flat all day until the big selling came in.

Energy longs are all but booked gains for me. I see almost everyone on Twitter now talking about energy because “the charts look good now” - I am sorry, you’re late to the party and you’re about to get your ass handed to you buying. We booked gains in DeltaOne and I did in my personal books today.

We also closed $VLO and $EOG in the AST Alerts Portfolio this week (the rest today).

One subscriber is up $76,000 since January or just about +25% on the year thanks in part largely to energy longs that we have been in since January.

+$76,000 through Q1

Another subscriber was up just over +$200,000 on $VLO - (was long equity and NOT just DITM calls). That stock as well as EOG and others I’ve been discussing since last September it was just not until January until and Q1 to which most were executed on.

So, to be clear, the energy long is FOMO at this point - I explained in the report Sunday and will get into more this weekend. There will be a nasty reversal I think in the coming days/next week on oil/gas stocks and then after some consolidation the new leg higher begins.

Gold names were stagnant today. I personally have a basket of longs in gold as of this week and the week prior which we began discussing last week. I’ll cover some of that in the premium version.

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