Daily Market Brief

April 8, 2024

Some relevant headlines/links from today -

• Jamie Dimon had some notes that 8% rates may lie ahead (Barrons)

• The implied move as of US market open on SPX500 this week is about $88 (LongVol)

• You can get a 21-day trial of the AST DITM Portfolio here (Start Trial)

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The markets are rangebound ahead of this CPI print Wednesday so there was no action really for intraday flow which is fine because the SPX500 has about an $88 moved priced in this week and other equities are pricing in large moves as well.

That matters because I don’t feel the need to press buttons everyday like many of you degenerates and given that we’re due for some portfolio shifts here based on this CPI this week and next week there will be plenty of flow.

Gold - everyone is talking about this right now and last night the Chinese suspended trading on one of the gold liked ETFs in China. What does that matter though?

It really doesn’t it’s just interesting and given we made new highs on the futures overnight the question always comes: “When do you exit?”

Let me start by saying: I don’t trade gold futures - there’s no asymmetry in that trade and you can run this idea (inflation long) in related equities. Whether that is:

• Miner ETFs

• Gold Miner Stocks

• Small/Micro cap miner stocks

• Or a ETF cocktail of all of them….

You have choices on how you trade the theme of “I want to be long gold” - But, more retail NPC’s never ask why, they’re to stuck in hearing themselves talk and regurgitating what they think is the next big move for inflation.

However, I do watch gold futures because you can trade some correlated ETFs from it and given that I think we’re close to a short-term technical sell zone(s) it’s on the radar this week - whether that’s a 1-2 day trade or a 1 week trade I don’t know.

What I said in the Monday Morning Brief for those in DeltaOne - is that I expect a pullback on some of the miners I am in and I probably buy them again long for one reason.

Whether this CPI print comes in cool or not I don’t for a second think inflation is cooling down but I certainly think this recent new highs into gold FOMO trade is.

It’s just the way of the markets - everyone waits until the last minute to make any moves while the smart, focused money pays attention and then when you finally decide it’s time to get off your ass and act you end up becoming exit liquidity.

Retail investing 101.

Given the data this Wednesday it’s a perfect time for this scene. (Watch here)

This seems like the easy part right? When the Fed cuts we see inflation continue to ramp? But it’s the timing of moves that is always hard which is why analysis is one part, structure of an idea the second and then last (but certainly not least) execution is the final part.

I learned many lessons early on when I was a wee-lad in the business thinking my thesis held water only to see my P&L wrecked due to poor trade structure and execution.

That’s the hard part. But, like most things, it just takes a little focus and thought and you can usually sort it out….and if you can’t…do what every investor does; blame the market.