Nvidia has saved the market with that earnings report and almost every sector was green today. PMI came in strong which helped but the real driver is Nvidia in all of this right now. This morning, I posted a chart on S&P500 price cycle analysis - if you missed that you can read it here.
This move today was great but so will the intraday opportunities as we get into tomorrow and next week. This entire report/blog (aside from DeltaOne and the DITM Portfolio) is designed for active-trading ideas - long/shorts across sectors and shorter-duration (intraday to 5 days) is a bit harder to do if you don’t have timing.
For example, I discussed Rivian being a trade short a while back and today I posted a chart on to StockTwits.
I care that the company has a lot of issues fundamentally; they’re objectively in trouble with that balance sheet but that doesn’t mean it cannot be a trade. The longer duration calls are ideal and the IV is not through the roof. Some people take a situation like this and buy the equity and hold or others buy the calls that expire tomorrow - mainly retail NPC traders.
On the other side of the spectrum, you have guys in the hedge fund world who try to sound super smart and sophisticated and blow up on Carvana because they don’t have any common sense.
So, let’s be clear, being dumb does not discriminate.
This is a trade, and I am a speculator who likes aggressive returns and if you should be as well.
Moving on….
Carvana - For those that are new here this was a big short for me in 2022 and it reports today after the bell. The company faces the same balance sheet issues that it faced (and has faced forever ) when I put out the short thesis then.
I don’t really know what they’re going to say this time but the rally after re-structuring a bit last year was just as amazing as the 7-figure short was. I plan to dive into the earnings tonight and see if there is a new short there to be had (there probably is) but I need to look; they’re a creative bunch there so reading the report thoroughly is required.
P.S. - That was the public video I released a few months after being short. The local YouTubers (who steal everything - Meet Kevin et all of them) took this and ran with it as if it was their idea so if we get a short this time I’ll keep it for members.
Gold Miners - A few names made it into issue 6 of The LongVol Report and many of them seem to be near short-term inflections. I don’t normally look at miners/gold too much but I run an absolute return model so it’s all the same to me.
If there is quality top-down research to support the idea and then we can add on technical then you have a solid idea. These names look strong right now and are likely new net longs for me very soon. When I get to a sector what I try to do is then dial it into a few names to buy/short “the best ones”. That means looking at which one has better fundamentals, and which one has a better chance of technical reacting: meaning, which one can run the furthest without being interrupted too much by resistance. There are a few picked out right now that I’ll get into in the Premium Members area.
S&P500 - $5120-$5130 are still areas I mentioned last night. Those are now adjusted to $5130-$5140 for tomorrow to see if sellers come in. Below $5070 causes a little issue and if I am being honest, I hope that it does for the sake of intraday strategy playbook trades that I want to run. Last week, SMCI on Friday collapsed rapidly but the IV on the puts was too high to get into. Tomorrow, if we fail at that area there are some ideas that have a more optimal trade structure to express the short. The rest of the S&P500 notes were posted this morning to read.
The Premium Members are Covers:
S&P500/Nasdaq/Crude analysis
2 Potential Intraday Shorts tomorrow
Thoughts on Gold Miners to Watch
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