Stock Market Plan March 12

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Welcome to the market recap for Tuesday March 12th, 2024. The plan for members is below in the paid section so let’s get started.

This session today was fairly slow and balanced out a bit across most names and given that Friday selling that was the expectation and was laid out last night in the Premium video. Tomorrow the CPI print at 8:30am EST is a big deal for this market so we’ll see how we react to that but today provided no edge in deciding that direction.

SPY/S&P500 - You need to break $516 on that SPY to get this market to press higher and that might be the case pending this news. The plan for me is to see how we react and if we carry into that with light to no rejection that tells me all I need to know. If we get there and sell a bit then it’s a breakdown and reversal lower. I know that sounds simple enough but how you actually trade that is entirely different.

That QQQ to $444 might be in play as well so if we can get that early morning move at the US open, post, CPI that sets the tone for the morning session into the European close.

Each Monday we do an AM call for DeltaOne - today I led it from St.Thomas and there were two ideas for intraday Strats: NVDA long after the dump (worked well for a quick trade) and TSLA long (still in it).

One thing I talked about today on that call was reading the execution and expectations of a trade ahead of time. One, you know how to structure it (size etc) and two you know if it becomes a trend day or just a quick “1-2” move like NVDA - that keeps you on the right side of the trade and expectations met.

TSLA - overall I am bearish this name and discussed why in the report yesterday. But this action between $175-$182 needs to resolve. If we breakout higher then that is a case to watch for failure but this just keeps getting sold on each pop. I don’t like the tight ranges like this and expect a bigger resolution of this range to occur this week. Above +$180 this presses hard with the gap at $188. Below that $175 levels opens this up but I think it needs higher first. Right now, the opening 30 min trade on this name tells a lot so something to watch tomorrow.

Energy - I’ve pounded the table long energy since the start of the year. Below is issue 3 of the Report (January) and the energy long has been the biggest position for me in Q1 and it’s been a good allocation. Hard to ignore the moves there and it’s pretty straight-forward as of now and that’s not always the easiest thing to say in financial markets.

More thoughts on CPI and updates tonight in the premium post.

In The Premium Video Tonight:

• S&P/Nasdaq/Crude Plan

• CPI thoughts and some scenarios to watch

• Tesla Thoughts for Tomorrow (Light Long)

• Amazon Short Update