The FOPT Releases Saturday - You can access early bird here.
Welcome to the market recap for Thursday March 14, 2024. The plan for members is below in the paid section so let’s get started.
Today started off with a pretty bad data that got us rolling over to start the day which was a nice move for index flow trading.
MSFT - This was on the radar all week and I talked about it last night in the Premium Video and this paid off as expected. A pretty repeatable Playbook trade called Bullish continuation. I came in long that and added into it after the first 5 minutes and scaled out about 10 minutes later. Intraday trading is a big part of my Playbook especially this year given the highs we’re on which makes it harder to hold risk overnight for me.
Tesla - Hit with SEC news the stock is getting hammered. I talked about this a lot last week and on Sunday in Issue 11 $130 became a price target into earnings for me and we might get there a lot quicker than expected. I want to say something to this really quick for those of you that read this and are still Retail NPCs operating from a point of unconscious incompetence. It’s how you trade the flow that matters. You could have shorted that Tuesday and been up an easy 5figures but there are still those out there in the Retail NPC universe wondering if this is a “generational buy” - Look, you can invest however you want and there are 100 ways to slice the bread but this idea of finding bottoms on stocks to invest in is a flawed way of NPC thinking.
I run an active portfolio - some of that portfolio constitutes long-term investments that are sized larger and the rest of the portfolio is active long/short trading. Every single time a stock sells-off these are the headlines that come out: “Time to buy? A generational buying opportunity!?” - And if you’re still buying into those narrative, you are that retail NPC.
I am not a bear or bull on any stock. I could care less; I trade the market and sometimes invest into it but at the end of the day this idea that some stock is going to “change the world” or be “different this time” is a fairytale as old as time.
Staying objective to the market and learning to book P&L is all that matters, long or short that’s all that matters. But this narrative of buying bottoms and holding is as retail NPC mindset as it get’s and it’s a detriment to investment accounts everywhere.
Now you can listen to this and change or continue to do the same thing, it makes no difference to me, but this framework of long/short trading works and when you trade you book gains and when you book gains you’re gonna make a lot of money.
It’s as simple as that.
When you look at the monthly chart on Tesla it tells you a lot - that it’s bearish and that $165 breaking creates an issue. $145-$150 are a spot now that I wait to see if I can get a trade off on but like all things this is one of 10 ideas constantly I want to pay attention too.
After all, it’s just another trade idea to generate and wait on.
Moving on….
Tomorrow is OPEX - and end of the quarter OPEX and I expect all the other PMs to be booking gains (and it looks like they did this week) so there is potential for a little selling into that but I’m probably calling it a week.
$5250-$5240 on S&P futures is a lot of resistance and $5190-$5200 was a big spot so to break out of that (even with some news tomorrow) is not a probability that I think is high.
In The Premium Video:
S&P500/Nasdaq/Crude Quick Analysis
Discussing Portfolio Allocation in VLO and EOG
Importance of Long/Short Idea Generation
TSLA quick notes
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