Stock Market Plan March 5th.

PMI & ISM Data & Tech Raging.

Welcome to the market recap for Monday March 4th, 2024. The plan for members is below in the paid section so let’s get started.

Today was a bit slow aside from the gap up in certain names which all just floated higher on lower volume. Not that it matters to me, but the tape was as dead as it gets and likely awaiting this PMI and ISM data tomorrow.

The end of day drop-off on Nasdaq and S&P500 might just be risk-off for the data tomorrow but I’ll get into my thoughts on this in the premium post.

I made a few moves today in adding to energy longs and to my Schwab long but aside from those only two-day trades:

• TSM off the highs

• NVDA test short and bailed

• Got long more Valero (shares and sold some put spreads)

Tesla and Apple are just dead in the water as of recent as these tech names and Crypto-correlated names take the reins. The implied vols on a lot of these names right now are insane and it has me wantting to sell puts, but these highs worry me, so I decided against it.

There was something I tweeted out today that might be of help -

If you’re a reader of this blog let me, be really candid; you are going to meet a ton of market participants on this journey you’re on of trading and investing. Many of them love their charts (and if they know how to use them, they can be good) and models but if you don’t know HOW to structure ideas based of signal then you have a problem.

What that means is this: a chart is a chart, and a trade idea is a trade idea, being able to structure the size and entire idea is JUST AS IMPORTANT as the thesis!

Right now, I am long VLO 0.00%↑ with shares and DITM calls, and I keep adding to it and taking off risk as new levels are cleared (trading v. forecasting).

I can sit here and tell you guys about trade calls we miss and hit -that’s what every one of these guru dickheads out here do. They do it with their “call flow data” - stock calls, models…all of it. Yet, none of that matters because if you cannot structure the idea or execute on it then it’s pointless.

The same goes for structuring a portfolio so you get risk-adjusted returns.

I’ve been preaching this for a decade - this video is from 8 years ago.

So, when I say I’ve seen it all I have, and the key is structuring trade and a portfolio that is risk-adjusted so you don’t have one idea that wipes you out or become dependent on 1 or 2 stocks to drive consistent returns.

At the end of the premium video, I am going to break down RIG 0.00%↑ (briefly) to show you:

• Analysis

• Structure

• Portfolio Risk

In The Premium Video Tonight I Cover:

• S&P500/Nasdaq/Oil Analysis

• A few thoughts on Semis

• Valero ATH breakout thoughts

• RIG: A Case Study on Structure