Happy Sunday.
If you missed the article of the week - The Charts Chico, They Never Lie - it’s a good read.
I keep seeing discussions about recession/no recession and the Yen carry trade. All of that matters for portfolio managers and those out here running millions…it’s not really relevant from a perspective of trading.
This week I am putting the Sunday video outlook here free.
I talk about what I normally do:
SPX/Nasdaq/Crude Oil
Momentum Monitor Stock Setups
The trading mentality v. Is This The Bottom Mentality
Why I want to See a Market Flush Still
Plus, thoughts on why a Nasdaq bounce and Yen and VIX rotation likely come.
On Carvana -
Look, I updated this in The LongVol Report and made comments in the video. My personal advice to any of you on that stock is this: if you don’t have $15/$20K to throw at it to get the short to work then it’s really not worth your time, in my view.
I saw that for two reasons. One, there are other “easier” trades (watch that video above) you can be making on repeat day in and day out. Really, you can day trade the momentum monitor back and forth like I have for literally 10 years and make money - it just takes you listening and paying attention v. wanting to be pretend Warren Buffet.
Two - being right on calling a short when you make little to no money is an ego trophy, not P&L. I think a lot of market participants are genuinely obsessed more with being “right” than actually making money.
I am short that stock and do think that if $132s break down that over the next 2-3 months it drops - again. It’s NOT a day trade for me and it’s not a trade I watch like a hawk daily.
The fundamentals are shot and now I just need the sell side order flow to trigger which I assume will take 2-3 months max and it rolls a bit.
To where? I have my targets and I hope they get there.
For members there’s a note inside.
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This article is presented for informational purposes only, is an opinion, and is not intended to recommend any investment, and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investments. Any such solicitation of an offer to purchase interest will be made by a definitive private placement memorandum or other offering documents.
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