The LongVol Report Issue 12

FOMC & Highs in Limbo.

The Foundations of Professional Trading video lecture training is officially out. For long-time Landshark followers, this was similar to a release back in 2016 but entirely overhauled as of the past few years.

New Playbook trades have been added and new trade idea generate frameworks.

I got caught in the rain on my run yesterday (video here).

And I’ll be hitting some 5K charity run this afternoon to end the weekend here in San Juan.

On to this week’s report!

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This week we have a BOJ meeting with rate hikes coming from them which will be interesting to see how it plays out across other equity markets. My main concern as we are at the end of Q1 is really simple: I think you’re going to see PM’s taking profits into end of quarter.

Two. The Fed meeting this week. Not expecting a rate cut but expecting the market to stay-higher for longer. Still, nobody really knows but probability says to be risk off and select indicators say the same. Hard to be new net longs at these highs but as always there are many hard-headed NPC retail investors who just never learn so maybe we’ll get some panic selling when they get hit in the face that this might be the spot for risk-off!

Housing starts this week as well are data I want to watch in addition to the other data points. To be honest, there is not much in the data that I need to see anymore to start looking at new shorts. The research done last Summer was enough and after a while you don’t need to keep looking at the same movie scene over and over to know how it plays out.

S&P500 - If we rally and break $5250 then that puts targets to $5290-$5310 for me, but that is a BIG if. $5150 is key - that breaks we start the risk-off into end of the month and I certainly hope this is how we get it to play out this week because there are 3 names in The Momentum Monitor that have potential ‘sledge-hammer shorts’

We love those here!

AAP - This made it into The Swing Monitor for a few reasons, one of them being Uncle Dan and Third Point coming in and putting a boot to the ass of this Company and their board. Two, we just broke out from two key technical levels that I use in my market timing/analysis framework. $85-$90 is where I want thit to trade too, then hoping for a reset of price so I can begin to structure some longs into Q2/3 that are core investments.

Below is issue 12 of The LongVol Report & Weekly Outlook for Members.