The LongVol Report Issue 9

The week of February 25th stock market outlook.

Welcome to the final week of February. We have some data this week to watch and the S&P500 at a key price zone that likely sees some selling to start the week after tech names pushed us higher.

There are a lot of things this week as we end the month to pay attention to most notably where the S&P500 is on the price chart as well as Yen futures which are near a standard double bottom.

One of those has to give and I talk about which in the premium video for this week’s outlook but that should be watched this week and into March.

TSLA - This stock right now is at a key spot and how we close the month matters. It’s had a lot of trouble coming of the lows from recent earnings and the rejections up at $300, $280 then $260 indicate that the larger time cycle is pushing this lower. If bulls want any chance of this saving, they need to get it above +$205 this week. If no, there is trouble on the horizon for this name and it may make for a great short to start the month of March.

Housing/XHB - We have some data tomorrow morning (new home sales) that is key to watch. Not that I care too much about this sector personally but because as a longer-term view it’s something I am watching. Last year I said that Q2 would be a time to watch this sector again and we are one month from Q2. There are still signs that I do not like from this sector and think a slowdown is on the way.

But market timing is important as much as a trade thesis is so, no big, short just yet, but maybe soon as we get new data and head into what I think is NO rate cut by the Fed anytime soon.

I said it before, managers are going to get caught offside on this rally, housing and the market included, and I think we’re close. Now, that’s a market forecast, not a trade which I explain in the premium video.

I don’t mind doing both but at the end of the month the trades are what make the P&L and that’s where I focus most of my time.

Shorter outlook for the free version this week but an in-depth video outlook inside.

Issue 9 Covers:

• The TLV Report

• Forecasting v. Trading

• S&P/Nasdaq/Oil Analysis

• Why I like BABA 0.00%↑ long this week

• Expanded views on TSLA 0.00%↑

• Why Amazon might be bull trapping this week