The LongVol - What You Missed This Week
This was a slow week grind up which played well to start then died out toward the end.
I also ended the 4 week mastermind for Portfolio Management. That will open up next year again on a quarterly basis with the full recordings.
It really is (not my words, mine are an MBA for trading) a “PHD in Trading” - so that was good to hear.
No new blogs this week.
This has been a really good year so far if you paid attention and were nimble. The fact is, most don’t pay attention.
They like to get into crowded trades (NVDA longs/Uranium) and forget about things like the huge home builders short 2 months ago.
Or CELH short a while ago.
This week, if you were a subscriber, oil short was a big call.
We could sit here and just talk about this one idea in the report right now because it was that big.
Sadly, I can’t put that into the AST portfolio because it was a short-term trade, not a swing.
But if you read the cliff notes and charts section I lay the important stuff out.
We’ve had a good year in the fund - the LP is up about 30% and some managed accounts close to 50% which puts an average return around 40% all on low 7 figure portfolios.
I often sit here and wonder why most people miss on these ideas - really.
The housing one in particular; I had a lot of emails (more after this article) asking why. Some saying not a chance until unemployment rises.
It’s silly. By the time the bad news comes out the trades are done. - Re, Carvana 2022.
Maybe it’s because market participants are obsessed with calling “the market” - not sure but I’ve always been a curious person and this is one answer that still evades me.
What I do know is that there are (and have been) some active swings in the report that have performed and are going to perform - the one alert that was sent out this week in particular I think should be a 2/3 bagger for the equity at least.
BABA 0.00%↑ was a dud - that’s ok since it was small loss but there are ideas that are going to work well the next 2-3 months if you can just sit your ass down and be patient.
At the risk of sounding like a hardo, you have to find a way to win and each week, each quarter, each year is a chance to do that and it’s something that I enjoy doing and hope to continue to do for many years to come.
I’ll be headed back to Puerto Rico next week and that’s welcomed as I wind down this year, get some surfing in and prepare for Q124.
The report will be out Sunday.
See ya then.
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This article is presented for informational purposes only, is an opinion, is not intended to recommend any investment, and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investments. Any such solicitation of an offer to purchase interest will be made by a definitive private placement memorandum or other offering documents.