What You Missed This Week.
What You Missed This Week.
Quick market notes and webinar.
Morning.
The article of the week is here.
You can listen on Spotify here.
Quick Market Notes
If you listen to the show this week I had a few comments about the Fed - they were late to cut on the way up and they’re late this time. They’re behind the curve on this it seems and that’s a concern for the lower half of the economy, which in my view (again explained in the show) is bifurcated.
On one hand, the wealth are thriving (look at RACE 0.00%↑ stock as one example) and the lower end is struggling so it’s important on the rate cut and who becomes elected to see if they can save this.
The Yen.
I’m not really a Macro trader but we do look at certain things at times to get a contextual read on markets and right now that concerns me as we head into next week. More on that in the Sunday report.
On housing - look, I know this is a touchy subject with folks and everyone has an opinion but sharing mine is what we do and I put my money where my mouth is with those opinions so if I’m talking about them it’s not just hot-air. I also don’t really care to debate it for one reason; it’s my money and that of our clients so debating it tends to be a waste of time, but that seems to be a big part of “investing”: debating with everyone instead of doing what the point of all of this is: INVESTING.
My concern is that the consumer (esp lower end) is in trouble and the idea that housing is going to boom on rate cuts is something many have wrong. I talked about this last year with Business Insider - my views are the exact same.
Every time I bring it up the first words out of peoples mouths are “This is not 2008” - but, my argument/inquiry is and never has been that but most people listen to reply and don’t listen to learn so it’s expected. Whether this becomes an issue or not we’ll see but part of being a long/short manager is developing investment thesis and tracking potential ideas…sometimes the catalyst triggers you get into the idea and you make money. Sometimes, the thesis doesn’t come true, you don’t put the position on and there’s no foul - and as I’ve said before, there’s no trophies for market calls, there’s only P&L.
So, we’ll see what comes of this but housing prices dropping harder than expected is concern and something high on my radar.
Webinar Next Friday - LongVol Report
On another note - next Friday Sam Evans who is my COO at my firm is going to be presenting with a group called Traders Exclusive. He will be talking about the Swing Monitor from The LongVol Report.
You can register for the webinar here.
A new report is out Sunday, see you then.
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