WYMTM Ep. 12
Here is a recap of what you missed this week (WYMTW).
The video is below, you can subscribe to that, and I am opening up Q&A again for a weekly Q&A on these posts. Email in to submit - Q&A is at the end of this week.
SMCI dropped nearly -20% Friday and made me and others a lot of Monday. Thursday in the chat I discussed this.
I am Bearish BABA still (LongVol)
I like Saturday mornings, I get up early, less caffeinated and usually get this outlook done then depending where I am (PR or PHX) get a run or cycle in. Normally a good time to gather thoughts and chill before getting to the weekly report.
The start of April I talked about my outlook for Q2 and this month:
Risk off on Mag 7
Capital flows into metals and inflation names
You can see the notes in Issue 14 there.
This week we got the sell off and it was dramatic.
The bad part is that we’re in an era where everyone is a Professional fisherman or at least they think they are.
So, even when making big moves like this or reader P&Ls like this it gets drowned out.
At the end of the day whether you read this to take the info and regurgitate it to others and pretend they’re your ideas, profit from it as paid member or are just browsing - the only thing that matters is P&L.
SMCI was by far one of the most insane moves I’ve seen and I had some tail-risk on for that the last month and covered it all yesterday.
The weird feeling, is that even when you make a lot it never feels like enough.
But, the saving grace, I suppose, is that other positions are working as well, it’s just that when you get situations like we had this week you have to be a pig.
This was an interesting article from Bloomberg.
Very similar to what I do in the hedge fund.
The Market at Large
I talked about Nasdaq being bearish the last 3-4 weeks and that likely continues into this quarter. The hard part is that the markets send you signs ahead of time but it’s the average investor, their aloof financial advisors and market cheerleaders that are always late to the exits.
Good for some, bad for others.
SP500 +4.1% YTD
Real Estate -10.6% YTD
Energy +13.4% YTD
Credit Card Delinquency & Money Markets
Ticking higher on delinquency
Money market outflows starting again
(Thanks Steve for sending this chart btw)
Housing Starts Data
Quote for The Weekend
Weekly Q&A
Q: Can you touch base about the Carvana short, what are we looking for. Is it just the technicals we are waiting to play out? - Ron, Wisconsin
Q: I saw you say that you thought RACE and RH would trader lower is that because you think the economy is slowing or just technicals?
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Video Uploaded
https://youtu.be/7msVtnw3NHI?si=ZE0jkPj1vpnifmki