WYMTW - Episode 10
Here is a recap of what you missed this week (WYMTW). A little different of format today with a video included to explain a few things and talk through some important items for the market.
The video is below, you can subscribe to that, and I am opening up Q&A again for a weekly Q&A on these posts. Email in to submit - Q&A is at the end of this week.
Boeing's CEO resigned and their credit was on review. This was an AST Alert in the Portfolio.
DWAC to DJT ticker change is done and the stock rallied - My Yahoo Finance comments on it here.
Q1 Review
The S&P is up 10% YTD which is a great start and for the closet indexers who manage money what an easy start to be indexed. The AI and semis trade was the trade of Q1 that everyone talked about and I think it’s far from over but expect profit-taking to start here soon into Q2. For me, and for readers, energy longs from issue 1 on in the
and onward was the big trade for Q1.It has not been a sexy trade and it doesn’t get the airtime on financial news as it should (but It will now in Q2) so it’s good to have owned many of these names off these lows. Names like $VLO $EOG $RIG and some others and given $XLE just broke highs and is after the 2014 highs this sector is going to get more narrative play.
The theme on energy (most names) was as good as it gets from a top-down approach as you can ask for:
FCF positive
Share buybacks
Dividend increases
Inflation raging again (just the start)
Technical inflections and ATH breakouts
US World Report & News - fall 2023 comments on energy. I’ve been talking about it since last September and as we get into some of these highs here I’ll be booking some gains and waiting for a technical reset to start a new leg higher.
Short-term trading
Active trading this quarter was great as well. Mainly aided by inflections on $HIMS off the lows as well as a lot of long/short on AI and semi-conductor names. The parabolic moves in some of these semis ($SMCI $TSM $NVDA) and others like $MU and $AMD proved to create quality trading and should be the same thing as we head into this quarter.
The asymmetry with these names in that sector has been incredible given the daily and weekly ranges that they are trading and if you trade them from that perspective a lot of money has been made with little downside risk.
Q2/ General Market Outlook
Hard to be bearish much of SPX/Nasdaq at larger just yet but also hard to allocate toward it given the move and I think PMs are going to begin shifting out of some of those names as the inflation trade is back on.
Copper names long for me are in play
Natural gas names and natural gas
Copper names long for me are in play
Gold miners (basket of longs via DITM and some LEAPs structures)
Natural gas names/utils
Weekly Q&A -
The video will be out shortly.
Q1: Are you concerned with spending in Congress and what is your perspective on structuring an investment portfolio based on the devaluation of the dollar and inflation coming back?
Q2: How do you model risk in an account? I have a $20K account and you’ve said “model it out” before can you explain what that means?
https://youtu.be/hqICER_BViw?si=4BbNFju8yIKnC9Sp