2.8 Market Notes
This market keeps pressing higher but it’s a weak move and my expectations are that we are in the 9th inning of this leg higher - I talked about that in-depth on the Sunday outlook of what I was after this week.
We have the 30-year bond auction tomorrow as well as two Fed speakers on deck.
$5040 is key for the S&P Futures right now and the read is a push higher but with caution - almost a bear trap feeling, and I like these situations for inflection reversals across higher-beta equities. To be clear - I think it’s risk off here very soon.
So why do I care about this? I care because what the indices do leads to the overall sentiment to the rest of the market because we’re all invested in the S&P and Nasdaq. If I think the indices are in areas of reversal or exhaustion that changes how I approach: A) Risk on day trades long B) new long trades - you should be able to put those two together. Your stock or the market you trade IS NOT AN ISLAND it will be affected by overall market risk-off and a failure to accept that is deadly.
Excerpt from the Sunday outlook.
Wednesday is the AM DelaOne Call - so we discussed this and a few opening setups that worked on a few names expecting this to float higher.
TSLA 0.00%↑ right now, is crowded - everyone is an options trader this day and the degenerates just market into names so I expect dealers to keep holding this down but as I said yesterday +$190 clears sell side flow out and we can press.
BABA - We all saw the same news here on this but that’s what makes the markets tick: the interpretation of that news. The $73 area was discussed today in the AM call but there was no flow there so no trade on the stock. It’s in play now with that buyback so I’ll get into some execution notes in the premium video.
BP 0.00%↑ issued a huge $3.5B share buyback which is part for the course - I’ve been saying this now for the last 4 months and long energy is the move for those running longer-duration portfolios.
We still need WTI Crude above +$75 - that would make me feel better about adding into some other ideas but the that build today on EIA we’ve held up.
There were a few other names with notable share buybacks this morning as well and those will make it into next week’s report in The Swing Monitor.
The Premium Video Tonight Covers:
S&P500/Nasdaq/Crude Plan
Quick Portfolio Risk Lesson
BABA 0.00%↑ Execution thoughts
General Market Thoughts