Stock Market Plan February 29

PCE Data & End of Month.

Welcome to the market recap for Wednesday February 28. The plan for members is below in the paid section so let’s get started.

Reminder: Webinar Thursday Night Here.

GDP was a non-event, and we have Core PCE tomorrow morning followed by unemployment claims and then Chicago PMI at 10:45. It’s also the last day of the month so one expects a little window-dressing from managers to end the month, but we’ll see. I’d be surprised if I make any moves tomorrow given the end of month, but we’ll see.

S&P500 - still stuck in this range and you need to break $5060-$5070 to get any sell off then below that $5045 is a spot to stick. This action at highs was similar to last year near this time and I ended up taking a week off to snowboard, so I am hoping that this is not the case again. +$5,100 has to clear still but we’ll see how we go given the action end of month and that data - if we don’t break those zones then it’s just a balanced market.

BABA - gapped down again and needs to hold $74s here - still bullish with that buyback but how you trade a thesis is just important as at thesis itself and too many Retail Traders get caught on terrible trade structure/execution - esp. when it comes to options as the expression.

I don’t have many other updates today because it’s just hurry up and wait so a few quick notes on the Professional Top-Down Approach - portfolio management.

Most trades in a portfolio can be separated into three categories:

1. Core holds/investments in the 6–18-month window.

2. Short-term trading from intraday to 90 days.

3. Speculation based ideas.

You generate long/short ideas around that and then structure the risk based around each. The Retail Trading approach doesn’t really do this; it’s either all in on one stock (or crypto) or day trading in and out: both make sense if you have a small account and no portfolio to manage. But it’s different when you are managing a portfolio so important to see it from this approach before you NPCs hit me up in an email.

HIMS was a short-term trade, it took about 3 months, and it was sized smaller with LEAPs as the structure.

Ideas are just generated across sectors and asset classes both long and short then they are structured accordingly. Sometimes equity, sometimes DITM, sometimes LEAPS and sometimes short-term options.

If that’s too complex for you then the AST Alert Portfolio will help.

If you’re trying to make a lot of money doing this then nothing should be too complex otherwise, you’re like every other goober who wants to make money while putting no effort in.

And that’s the way I structure my fund and personal accounts; some are the short-term trading ideas - and some are the longer-term trades, like our VSCO long which is up over +50% at this point.

The goal with all of that is risk-adjusted returns - meaning you have a portfolio of risk you run v. just trying to run up an account, which works, but again, I’m not using a small account or that framework, so the approach is different. If you are a reader of this blog and that is, you then the SAT Options Training framework is focused on that.

Idea generation is always first then come structure then the portfolio. I know this is different than what most of the NPC Retail trading matrix and generic $20 Amazon books and chat rooms most of you have traversed have said, but then again, very few of them manage money so you can’t expect this approach.

Now again, some of you don't care about any of that and I am sure your brokerage account returns will show that as well (funny, but it’s true) - and if that’s the case then just use the AST Alerts because the entire thing is structured from idea, to risk trading execution.

But again, that’s the process.

In The Premium Video Tonight I Cover:

• S&P500/Nasdaq/Oil Analysis

• BABA trade analysis update

• Quick thoughts on end of month