Stock Market Plan March 1
Welcome to the market recap for Thursday February 29. The plan for members is below in the paid section so let’s get started.
Reminder: Webinar Thursday Night Here.
Link will be sent an hour before.
The market today didn't have much going on and I didn’t make any new moves and may not tomorrow either given the ranges are constrained.
Some names closed this month strong like SCHW 0.00%↑ and ABNB 0.00%↑ which made the report and HIMS 0.00%↑ was the big closing win this week.
I made a new video on Carvana today -
Same thesis as in 2022 but trading it on the short side will be hard so it’s probably just a combination of multiple shorts over and over meaning you have to use market timing to size it, get in, then exit - then wash rinse and repeat. Everyone has their view on execution, but I used to be a big short-seller in 2011-2013 and we cleared nearly $10 million on the desk I was on from University of Phoenix and Corinthian from just being short the equity and long duration puts.
Today, it’s a little different because it’s harder to hold shorts for more than a few weeks at best and to be honest with so many other opportunities it makes it almost not worth it aside from the notoriety - which, may or may not come and didn’t really when I first talked about this in Feb 2022. The Company is a full-on self-enrichment tool for insiders and the people who buy their debt are other idiot managers who were never trained in anything except book-smart level thinking - Like I said whether it’s retail NPC traders or money managers; nobody is safe!
The key in any trade thesis is execution. Really important here: you guys see “trade ideas” all the time: CNBC, the dorks who follow Michael Burry, people that subscribe to trade calls….all of it is an idea, how you execute that matters and if you’re reading this and you realize that then you’ve been burned before, enough at least, to understand that.
So, with this stock here is the playbook: I am going to short this over and over with the equity at technical areas - ideally, at market opens or days when it rallies and starts to fail but I am going to ride this as a short only idea until it’s sub $30. There will be days where this is down -15% in the coming months and that’s going to print.
Maybe you can connect the dots on this, if you cannot, you’ll have to get back to watching YouTube traders and making daily stock watch lists to press the button to guess which ones going to move.
Conclusion: the stock is toast, but buying the puts and waiting is not enough.
Moving on…
There were some good moves from The Swing Monitor this week which are closing the month well and should lead into new alerts firing off in March.
In The Premium Video Tonight I Cover:
S&P500/Nasdaq/Oil Analysis
META and MSFT Thoughts
Why HIMS 0.00%↑ is done for now (let it gooooo)
CVNA 0.00%↑ short execution explained.