WYMTW - Ep. 15
Core Positions & Nigerian Buybacks
Here is a recap of what you missed this week (WYMTW).
The video is below, you can subscribe to that, and I am opening up Q&A again for a weekly Q&A on these posts. Email in to submit - Q&A is at the end of this week.
KGC was higher this week - this was flagged over a month ago (LongVol)
A new AST Portfolio alert was sent out (AST Alerts)
TSMC with great numbers - revenue jumped +60% YoY - it’s been flagged in the report, I own a long equity position. (LongVol)
Japanese equities are on my radar - IX (among others) has a nice buyback (LongVol)
This week was great again for some moves in intraday flow but overall it was slow and that’s welcomed given the last week. I don’t have much to report on the personal life end other than riding again on schedule and wake-surfing tomorrow. A few weeks left in Phoenix before leaving for the Summer.
Some shots from the 5am rides this week.
The Market at Large
Every time I get to this part on Saturday I cringe because I don’t care about the market direction at large but I have to write about it because that’s what most care about. The problem is, everyone with a Robinhood & TikTok account has an opinion on the market at large but it doesn’t matter because execution is the key.
We have some economic data coming up this week:
CORE PPI
CPI
And since everyone is now a macro trader now you’re supposed to have an opinion on that as well but I don’t. Not because I don’t care but because it’s not really my specialty and there are others out there that can really speak on it that are better suited to inform you than me.
What matters right now to me are a few things:
Trading this volatility intraday
Rotating in and out of energy
Picking good companies with rising earnings and those with some inflation linked theme to them
The AST Portfolio has had some adds the last 6 weeks that are just starting to come to life and some more that are going to be added soon. But, understanding the macro backdrop a bit helps — and if history repeats then my view remains that inflation is not yet going to cool, hence some of the positions.
Taiwan Semiconductor - while most have been crowding into the typical hedge-fund hotel over at NVDA 0.00%↑ , SMCI 0.00%↑ and others this name has quietly done it’s thing. The move last week was incredible and new sales numbers that came out gave it a much needed technical move into the end of week. I can easily see this trading to $200 or higher into the end of the year and higher into the coming years but for now this is something that I own as a core position.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) - We own this in the AST Portfolio and if you missed this I talked about it a month ago with US World Report & News. Their earnings were as good as you can ask for (earnings report is here) and they just made another 52-week high this week. It’s not as sexy as TSM 0.00%↑ and doesn’t have the ability (in my view) to have as much asymmetry as it but it’s a solid position that is yielding return already and I’ll take that.
The SP500
Real estate names were boosted a bit (home-builders included) on speculation that the Fed is close to cutting, at least that’s my take, but there are technical signals for me (and some fundies) that have me eyeing them closely. Energy is flat this month, which, is good for members of this site. We bought those names in January/February when nobody wanted them then sold them all into the end of April just as your local guru and CNBC pros started talking about energy long….
A Nigerian buyback successfully executed for the Dirty Nickel Flippers in DeltaOne.
The S&P itself is at a critical spot. In the Thursday night brief I really spent time discussing this corrective signal that was given at $5250-$5260 and one of the things I was looking for was a technical close above $5255. We didn’t get it but with the economic data next week this area is a technical spot that is extremely important for the short-term (1-2 months).
There was a meme passed around a while back -
It’s funny and true and also a tradable strategy that has been great the last 2 years - however, the noise week too week around it and the economic data releases is really only good for one thing; trading intraday volatility. Which, to be clear, is a strategy I run while other positions mature and one that I like (hence LongVol!).
However, for most amateur investors punting around as a side hobby to pass the time (which most are -lets be real) it usually leads to the game of guessing what direction, maybe getting it right, maybe getting it wrong and usually keeping people on the degenerates hamster wheel.
So the data this week likely moves us around a bit since the consensus for most investors in the market right now is: when does the Fed cut?
Again, I don’t care too much because there are core positions that are not necessarily dependent on it but on the other side of the coin the volatility is welcome because it's making those who are in-tune a lot of money.
Weekly Q&A
Q: Can you discuss Alibaba and your outlook after that recent move higher?
Q: When do you think home builders start to crack and sell-off?
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This article is presented for informational purposes only, is an opinion, and is not intended to recommend any investment, and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investments. Any such solicitation of an offer to purchase interest will be made by a definitive private placement memorandum or other offering documents.